DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040539
SWODY1
SPC AC 040536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST TUE DEC 03 2013

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS AROUND A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL CONUS. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONSOLIDATE WHILE EMERGING OVER THE NRN PLAINS BEFORE
EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO ADJACENT ONTARIO.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL CONUS AS A
SFC CYCLONE TRACKS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT CANADA ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT.
CORRESPONDING POLEWARD LOW-LEVEL MASS FLUXES PRECEDING THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL DRIVE A PLUME OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...NO MORE THAN
MARGINAL BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE WITHIN THIS PLUME.

MORE PROMINENT STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FLUXES TO
ENCOURAGE INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AMIDST THE BUOYANCY IS NOT
FORECAST TO OCCUR UNTIL THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
ASCENT...ALONG WITH FRONTAL ASCENT...MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
NEWD TO THE OHIO VALLEY...MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 12/04/2013

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