DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030750
SWODY3
SPC AC 030748

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CST TUE DEC 03 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST PROGRESSES NEWD
TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A WEAKER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A DEEP
SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF LK SUPERIOR AT 12Z/THU SHOULD RAPIDLY PROGRESS
NEWD...WITH TRAILING PORTION OF A STOUT COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD AND
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC TO WRN GULF COAST BY EARLY FRI.

...SABINE VALLEY TO NRN AL...
ANOTHER DAY OF CONTINUED WARM SECTOR MODIFICATION SHOULD YIELD
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS BENEATH A WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 800-750 MB. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...MLCAPE MAY REACH 500-1000 J/KG WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
CHANGE AND THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
BEYOND THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IN OPEN WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
IS QUITE LOW. THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR STRONG FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE TO AID IN CONVECTION FORMING IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. BUT WITH DEEP-LAYER WINDS GENERALLY PARALLELING AND
INTENSE MID-LEVEL FLOW LAGGING THE FRONT...CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE
TO BECOME ORGANIZED PRIOR TO BEING UNDERCUT. DESPITE SUFFICIENT
CAPE/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE...WILL ONLY ADD MARGINAL
PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS.

..GRAMS.. 12/03/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.