ACUS48 KWNS 160759
SWOD48
SPC AC 160759
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CST MON DEC 16 2013
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY PREDICTABLE PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT
FRI/D5...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SWD ACROSS CA AND THE WRN
GREAT BASIN ON THU/D4 AND INTO NWRN MEXICO BY FRI/D5. WELL AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH...A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT.
FOR THE SAT/D6-MON/D8 PERIOD...WHILE SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER
LOW WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AROUND SUN/D7...THERE IS MUCH VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH A
FEW SHOWING NO UPPER LOW AT ALL. THEREFORE...WHILE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS TIME FRAME...PREDICTABILITY IS
FAR TOO LOW.
..JEWELL.. 12/16/2013
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