MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2117

ACUS11 KWNS 291350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291349
NCZ000-SCZ000-291515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291349Z - 291515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A
NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THROUGH MIDDAY.

DISCUSSION...NRN PORTION OF A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHING THE
CHS AREA TO JUST OFF THE GA COAST HAS EXHIBITED WEAK LOW-LEVEL
ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES IN BERKELEY COUNTY SC. MODIFIED 12Z CHS RAOB
SUGGESTS WEAK BUOYANCY IS PRESENT WITHIN A MIXED-LAYER PARCEL GIVEN
66-67 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS. AMIDST 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT PER
LTX VWP DATA...A BRIEF TORNADO OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.

DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO A
SUSTAINED WIND/TORNADO RISK. OFFSHORE BUOYS NEAR THE SRN NC COAST
ARE ONLY SAMPLING SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 64 DEG F. MODIFIED 12Z
MHX RAOB SUGGEST SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WOULD STRUGGLE TO EVEN HAVE
SCANT BUOYANCY AND THIS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO A
WATCH-WORTHY SEVERE RISK.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 12/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON 32508043 33817960 34597825 35027737 35077667 34907636
34687628 33997760 32328004 32508043

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