DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170024
SWODY1
SPC AC 170021

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY IS QUICKLY DIGGING SSEWD OUT OF IA
ACROSS THE MID-MS AND LOWER-OH VALLEYS. AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAS SUPPORTED A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND OVER IA/IL...BUT
DUE TO MEAGER BUOYANCY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MINIMAL.

MEANWHILE...SEGMENT OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN BY EARLY FRI
MORNING. SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...PRIMARILY OFFSHORE THE S TX COAST...BUT A WARM LAYER ABOVE
ROUGHLY 1.5 KM AGL SHOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

..ROGERS.. 01/17/2014

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