DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010059
SWODY1
SPC AC 010055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH FL...

A CORRIDOR OF WEAK BUOYANCY PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTH FL WHERE PW VALUES
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...AOA 1.5 INCHES. OLD BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
OVER THE STRAITS HAS ADVANCED NWD AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. MAJORITY OF SHOWERS...MOSTLY SHALLOW WEAK ELEVATED
CONVECTION...STRETCHES FROM THE ERN GULF BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
PENINSULA...JUST NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THE GREATEST RISK OF
WEAK CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY...DEEPEST UPDRAFTS MAY ACTUALLY CONGREGATE OFFSHORE OVER
THE MORE BUOYANT MARINE LAYER. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS THIS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF EYW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FL BUT THE PRIMARY
THREAT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

...SRN CO/NRN NM...

STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME IS SPREADING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO/SWRN KS. NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS HAVE
EVOLVED NORTH OF THE MAIN JET AXIS ACROSS THIS REGION AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS NOW SPREADING INTO WRN KS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED WITH ACTIVITY NEAR GCK. WHILE ANOTHER
STRIKE OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IT APPEARS THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 02/01/2014

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