DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201258
SWODY1
SPC AC 201255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...CURRENTLY DETECTED OVER THE NRN PLAINS PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW AMPLIFYING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE W. AT THE
SFC...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE N-CNTRL
CONUS AS CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR IS REINFORCED E OF THE ROCKIES. SFC
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR
MASS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SW OF THE LOW WILL ENTER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL RETURN OF POORLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.

AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT WITHIN THE
LOBE OF DCVA IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE IMPULSE AS IT TRACKS FROM
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE SCARCITY
OF BOTH MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY PRECLUDE GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM
DELINEATION.

LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INVOF THE FRONT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT SEWD FROM THE SABINE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT MEAGER BUOYANCY ATOP
THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. EQUILIBRIUM-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN -20C. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY
PROFILES COULD EXTEND SLIGHTLY DEEPER INTO ICING LAYERS ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A FEW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER PORTIONS OF
MS...LA...AND E TX LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL IS TEMPERED BY THE POOR PHASING BETWEEN HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP
ASCENT PRECEDING THE IMPULSE AND THE NRN EXTENT OF ANY SUBSTANTIVE
RETURN MOISTURE. THE CONDITIONAL/LOW-COVERAGE NATURE OF SUCH
POTENTIAL PRECLUDES A THUNDER AREA...THOUGH SUCH INTRODUCTION COULD
BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 01/20/2014

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