DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081237
SWODY1
SPC AC 081235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL TO GENTLY CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER MOST OF CONUS..WITH WEAK/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER ERN
ORE AND SRN NV. BY 12Z...THESE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO MOVE SEWD
TO CENTRAL/SERN CO AND SRN OK/N TX REGION...RESPECTIVELY.
MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE PAC NW...NEAR 135W -- SHOULD MOVE ASHORE
WA/ORE BETWEEN 00-06Z...TURNING SEWD ACROSS THOSE STATES THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD.

AT SFC...DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY EVIDENT OVER OK
PANHANDLE AND NRN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AND SHIFT SWD
ACROSS TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION IN STEP WITH WEAK COLD FRONT AND
RELATED WIND SHIFT...WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OK SWWD ACROSS
NW TX AND SERN NM BY 00Z.

ALTHOUGH NO GEN TSTM AREAS ARE FCST ATTM...ANY OF THREE CONDITIONAL
REGIMES MAY YIELD A FEW LTG STRIKES IF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ARE
OPTIMIZED.

...E TX/ARKLATEX AREA...
AHEAD OF WEAK SFC FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION/TRANSPORT WILL
OCCUR WITHIN WAA PLUME. ASSOCIATED TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE TO
EMANATE FROM EARLY-STAGE AIR-MASS MODIFICATION REGIME OVER WRN GULF.
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ALREADY IS UNDERWAY PER RAOBS...GPS PW DATA
AND SFC ANALYSIS...HOWEVER LACK OF BOTH SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MORE THAN VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED LTG
POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THIS REGIME PRIOR TO
DAY-2. SREF MEMBERS ARE ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP OR NONE IN THIS AREA DURING 09-12Z TIME FRAME...WRF-ARW PROGS
BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE AND NMM-B MEMBERS BEING LARGELY DEVOID. OTHER
MODELS SUCH AS OPERATIONAL NAM/SPECTRAL AND ARW-KF ARE BORDERLINE
WITH RESPECT TO SUFFICIENT JUXTAPOSITION OF THETAE IN ELEVATED
WAA/INVERSION LAYER AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE THAT ARE BARELY
UNSTABLE...IF THAT MUCH. GIVEN THAT CAPE WOULD BE WEAK...IF
ANY...AND PRESENCE OF SUCH INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE...TSTM
POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY CONDITIONAL FOR NOW.

...S FL/KEYS...
REMNANT ARCTIC FRONT HAS LARGELY STALLED OVER PORTIONS
BAHAMAS...CUBA AND NWRN CARIBBEAN...AND SOME NWD RETURN OF FAVORABLY
MOIST/WARM BOUNDARY LAYER IS POSSIBLE TOWARD NRN BAHAMAS...GULF
STREAM AND STRAITS. HOWEVER...ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME STABLE LAYERS ALOFT EVIDENT IN 12Z EYW/MFL/NASSAU
RAOBS...AND TO PRODUCE LTG...SHOULD REMAIN OVER WATER.

...PAC NW...
BRIEF/ISOLATED LTG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION
ACCOMPANYING DCVA PLUME STEEPENING LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
IT MOVES ASHORE AHEAD OF PAC SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...MAX MUCAPE
SHOULD REMAIN VERY MRGL AT LESS THAN 100 J/KG. POTENTIAL APPEARS
TOO MRGL/ISOLATED FOR GEN TSTM AREA.

..EDWARDS/JIRAK.. 01/08/2014

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