MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0009

ACUS11 KWNS 071559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071558
NYZ000-072000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 AM CST TUE JAN 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...E SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 071558Z - 072000Z

SUMMARY...ONTARIO LAKE BAND WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY...BUT INTENSITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND BAND DEPTH DECREASES.

DISCUSSION...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERE
IS NOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH THE INVERSION HEIGHT NEAR
700 MB PER 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER WITH TIME FROM SW-NE AS THE PRIMARY LOBE OF
COLDEST AIR PIVOTS NEWD AND WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO REDUCE THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTIVE PLUME OFF ERN LAKE
ONTARIO...AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKEWISE BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...ONLY MINOR WOBBLES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE MAIN LAKE BAND...AND HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD STILL
EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY NY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON AND 20-35 KT WSWLY-WLY WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

..THOMPSON.. 01/07/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON 44037629 44107575 44107535 44027518 43817526 43757550
43677624 43687674 43787685 43907681 44037629

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