MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0040

ACUS11 KWNS 290048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290048
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-290445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE NC...SE VA...SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 290048Z - 290445Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NWD ACROSS FAR NE NC AND SE
VA/SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHIN THIS
LARGER EXPANSION...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
SNOWFALL IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. KORF RECENTLY REPORTED MODERATE
SNOW.

00Z MHX SOUNDING SAMPLED 35 KT SELY WINDS JUST BELOW 850 MB WITH A
SATURATED LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 500 MB. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MOST
GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER
FROM CNTRL NC NEWD TO OFF THE VA COAST. THIS MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT
OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LIFT THROUGHOUT A
DEEP AND SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER /NOTED ON THE 00Z WAL
SOUNDING/. AS A RESULT...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED FROM FAR NE NC NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 INCH
PER HOUR.

..MOSIER.. 01/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON 35847684 36017769 36687792 37227752 37487722 37827684
38117647 38187594 38037535 37417560 36407609 35847684

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