Sunday, February 16, 2014

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170418
SWODY1
SPC AC 170416

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD ALONG I-70 FROM CNTRL MO AT 12Z INTO NRN
INDIANA BY 00Z. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE NEWD AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MO INTO IL EARLY.

ELSEWHERE..A ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NWRN STATES
WITH FAST WLY FLOW...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING WITH HEATING.
A LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM WA INTO NRN ID AND WRN
MT DURING THE DAY WITH SHALLOW...SHORT-LIVED AND TOPOGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED WEAK CONVECTION.

...CNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL...
WHILE THE SURFACE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL AND STABLE...MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY AGREE THAT MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG WILL DEVELOP
OVER MO EARLY...AS RAPID COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS AN ELEVATED
MOISTURE PLUME NEAR 850 MB WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 7 G/KG. STRONG
UVVS WITH THE COLD FRONT ALOFT WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION...AND
SOME COULD BE CONVECTIVE. IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR SUGGEST
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR AS WELL.

..JEWELL/BOTHWELL.. 02/17/2014

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