ACUS01 KWNS 190528
SWODY1
SPC AC 190527
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN KS...NERN OK...AND
SWRN MO...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY. TO
THE E...A LEADING UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT
ACROSS OK DURING THE DAY AND OVER AR...KS...MO AND TN OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS AND FRONTAL LIFT
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
WED EVENING FROM SERN KS/NERN OK INTO MO.
...NERN OK AND SERN KS INTO CNTRL MO...
SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY TRANSPORT NEAR 60 F BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS INTO OK BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER
MAGNITUDES CONTINUING NWD IN AN ELEVATED SENSE WITH A 50+ KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR DUE TO CLOUDS AND
ONLY SHALLOW MIXING. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND BY 21-00Z...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
SERN KS AND NERN OK NEAR THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HAIL IS LIKELY.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH STORM
INITIATING ZONE SPREADING NEWD INTO MO. A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF HAIL PERHAPS UP TO GOLF-BALL SIZE.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
WELL-FORMED CLUSTER OF CELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP AS A MESO-LOW ALONG
THE FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS.
..JEWELL/BOTHWELL.. 02/19/2014
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment