DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220550
SWODY1
SPC AC 220549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR JAMES BAY...WHILE A BELT
OF STRONG MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NWRN STATES TO
THE CNTRL CONUS AND NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSES
ACCOMPANYING MINOR PERTURBATIONS ADVANCING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRADUAL RETURN OF WEAKLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
ON LOW-LEVEL SLY/SWLY TRAJECTORIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/WRN
GULF COAST AND VICINITY. MEANWHILE...A REMNANT SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA...WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELEGATED TO LATITUDES S OF THIS FRONT.

...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO ITS S WILL BE THE FOCI FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AMIDST 800-1300 J/KG OF MLCAPE. WITH 25-30 KT OF
MID-LEVEL FLOW...DEEP SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THAT COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REDUCE THE PROPENSITY FOR
CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO ENCOURAGE SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
FURTHERMORE...ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST NEUTRAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT TENDENCIES WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY.

...CNTRL GULF COAST AND VICINITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN-FLOW REGIME AND MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WOULD OCCUR ON THE NOSE OF WARM H85-H7 AIR
EMANATING FROM THE NRN MEXICAN PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ROOTED
ATOP A STATICALLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...REINFORCED BY NOCTURNAL
SFC COOLING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP SHEAR
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY FROM COASTAL LA TO THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE. THE PRESENCE OF ONLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND THE
ANTICIPATED LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WILL NEGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/GUYER.. 02/22/2014

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.