DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230557
SWODY1
SPC AC 230556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN
STATES...ANCHORED TO A VORTEX MOVING ACROSS NRN QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...
MID-UPPER LEVEL WSWLY WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND SERN STATES. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LATTER FLOW REGIME THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WSWWD THROUGH KY...NRN AR TO ERN OK AND THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AT 12Z TODAY WILL ADVANCE SSEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM SC WSWWD INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER TX COAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY 12Z
MONDAY.

...GULF COAST STATES...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE D1 PERIOD OVER SRN LA...SRN MS...PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE WRN
FL PANHANDLE...WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE SOME OF THE
STORMS PRIOR TO 12Z TODAY COULD PRODUCE GENERALLY SMALL HAIL...THIS
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AS THE MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WEAKEN. CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO THE ONGOING MORNING
SHOWERS/ELEVATED STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL
LIMITING SURFACE HEATING. A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING EWD
ALONG THE CENTRAL TO NERN GULF COAST AND SRN GA COMBINED WITH
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WAA DUE TO VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THESE FACTORS AND GENERALLY WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL-ERN GULF COAST REGION
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL WITH EWD EXTENT.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER SERN LA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE...AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.

...CENTRAL/ERN FL PENINSULA...
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN FL PENINSULA INTO
THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/SUSTAINABILITY...AND THUS PRECLUDES THE
INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. A LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AS SURFACE HEATING AIDS IN STEEPENING
SFC-3 KM LAPSE RATES...BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE
GUST STRENGTH.

..PETERS/BUNTING.. 02/23/2014

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