Thursday, February 27, 2014

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270540
SWODY1
SPC AC 270538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST WED FEB 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA TO 4 CORNERS...

WELL DEFINED MIDLEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SOON MOVE INLAND ALONG
THE NRN CA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY BY SUNRISE WHERE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE AT 12Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST GREATEST BUOYANCY SHOULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 10-14Z WHEN MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG COULD
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BENEATH TROUGH. WITH SFC-6KM LAPSE
RATES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 7 C/KM IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT SMALL HAIL
COULD BE NOTED WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
FORECAST CLOUD LAYER SHEAR. BY LATE MORNING MIDLEVEL WARMING IS
EXPECTED SLOWLY WEAKEN LAPSE RATES AS TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. FOR THIS REASON THE PROSPECT FOR LIGHTNING WILL DECREASE
WEST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE.

STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
4-CORNERS REGION AS SPEED MAX DIGS INTO NRN AZ BY 28/00Z...THEN INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE PW VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW NORTH OF THE JET...ON THE ORDER OF 0.30
IN...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE 4-CORNERS TO
WARRANT A RISK FOR LIGHTING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

..DARROW/ROGERS.. 02/27/2014

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: