Thursday, February 6, 2014

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060503
SWODY1
SPC AC 060500

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CST WED FEB 05 2014

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DEEP/COLD CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DIGGING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COLD SURFACE
RIDGE...WHICH HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS AND TO THE LEE OF MUCH OF
THE CANADIAN/U.S. ROCKIES...APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN TO MODIFY
BENEATH A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
WEAKENING CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON ...BEFORE
FORCING BENEATH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS EASTWARD
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
SHALLOW LEADING /SOUTHEASTERN/ EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
STALL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
COAST...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY TURN SOUTHERLY NEAR MEXICAN
GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA...WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIVE
INLAND MOISTENING.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONE EXCEPTION MAY EXIST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHERE IT
REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST...AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH INSOLATION. THIS PROBABLY WILL BECOME
MAXIMIZED OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE/WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT LOCALLY ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATION OF ONE OR
TWO STORMS.

..KERR.. 02/06/2014

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