Monday, February 17, 2014

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170630
SWODY2
SPC AC 170629

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE U.S. DAY 2...THREE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT ROUGHLY
THE NRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST -- PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SEWD TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH TIME...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE SECOND OF THESE TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE
DAY...AND THEN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

FINALLY...THE THIRD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE PAC
NW PERIOD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEMS...BUT NONE OF THE THREE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE THUNDER RISK. IN FACT...ANY MORE
THAN ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH THE TWO ERN-MOST
SYSTEMS.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE WRN
TROUGH...AS THE PERSISTENT WLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
PERSISTS. MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN
CONFINED THE WRN PORTIONS OF WA/OREGON AND NRN CA...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT AREAS AS FAR E AS WRN MT/WRN WY/NRN UT. ANY
LIGHTNING RISK...HOWEVER...APPEARS VERY LOW -- AND WOULD LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE OLYMPICS...CASCADES...AND COAST RANGES.

..GOSS.. 02/17/2014

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