DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 270624
SWODY2
SPC AC 270623

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CST THU FEB 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN FRIDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
OVER THE WRN U.S. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CA UNDERCUTS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE. SRN STREAM WILL MERGE WITH THE VERY BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND HUDSON BAY VORTEX RESULTING IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. A LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS.

...CNTRL CA AND SWRN STATES...

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SRN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHS. AREAS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF CA WITHIN ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR INSOLATION WILL EXIST OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
CONCURRENT WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN
POTENTIAL FOR 200-300 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. PFC DATA
INDICATE STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UPPER-LOW CIRCULATION. THIS SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
UPDRAFT ROTATION...CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

...MID MS THROUGH TN VALLEY AREA...

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY AREAS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER. HOWEVER...ASCENT ATTENDING THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPDRAFT BASES BETWEEN 800-700 MB. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING AS IT
DEVELOPS EWD DURING THE DAY.

..DIAL.. 02/27/2014

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