DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260655
SWODY2
SPC AC 260654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST WED FEB 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS
PROGGED OVER THE U.S. DAY 2...AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING --
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD -- SWEEPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LEAVING FLATTER
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING MOVING
INTO CA/OREGON AND THEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN
WHAT HAD BEEN PERSISTENT WRN U.S. RIDGING.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LAST REMNANT OF A PRIOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. -- LINGERING OVER S FL EARLY IN THE DAY -- IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT S OF THE PENINSULA/KEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST -- ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
-- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD AND EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AS INCREASINGLY WLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SUPPORTS LEE CYCLOGENESIS.

WITH A COLD/DRY AIRMASS TO PREVAIL E OF THE ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF
THE PRIOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION...ERN U.S. THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL
BE LIMITED TO S FL IN THE VICINITY OF THE REMNANT FRONT.
LATER...WEAK/ELEVATED/ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE OVER THE
OK VICINITY AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ATOP A DEEP/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT THUNDER RISK APPEARS MINIMAL AT BEST.

GREATER RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST IN WITHIN A BAND EXTENDING FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA OF CA
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA --
COINCIDENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THIS REGION.
MEAGER INSTABILITY HOWEVER PRECLUDES SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

..GOSS.. 02/26/2014

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