DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170818
SWODY3
SPC AC 170817

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR DAY
3...AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING
THE DAY...AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM NEARS
THE HIGH PLAINS...A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE OVER ERN CO IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OK/KS VICINITY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS AR/MO AND THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EMERGES FROM THE SRN ROCKIES AND THEN CROSSES
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF KS/SERN NEB ENEWD TO SRN WI/IL...
NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM...BUT BACKGROUND
SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. INSTEAD... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT N OF THE WARM FRONT. HERE...ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER DARK...INITIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND ERN KS/SERN NEB VICINITY AND THEN SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS
PARTS OF IA/MO/IL/SRN WI THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT ANY HAIL PRODUCTION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SEVERE...AND THUS WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE
PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 02/17/2014

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