DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250828
SWODY3
SPC AC 250827

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE U.S. DAY 3. OVER THE WRN STATES...WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED AS SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC PACIFIC DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE IN THE
EAST...AS A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER
CYCLONIC FLOW SHIFTS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...A FLATTER CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD WILL EVOLVE IN ITS WAKE.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD AIR/HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...HELPING TO DRIVE THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT INITIALLY LINGERING OVER S FL OFFSHORE/INTO CUBA
BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF BROAD/DISORGANIZED LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.

AREAS OF CONVECTIVE/ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD WILL BE
TIED TO THIS STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE WRN U.S. -- AS WELL AS TO THE
LINGERING COLD FRONT OVER S FL. ACROSS THE S FL REGION...SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST N
OF THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY VACATES THE PENINSULA/KEYS. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EWD FROM
THE SIERRA/WRN NV REGION ACROSS PARTS OF UT/CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

AS THIS SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE...INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED/VERY HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE OK VICINITY. CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIMITED HOWEVER...AND ATTM DO NOT FEEL THAT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF A 10% AREA.

..GOSS.. 02/25/2014

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