MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0047

ACUS11 KWNS 010534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010534
MOZ000-KSZ000-011030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS TO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 010534Z - 011030Z

SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY AS
SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH FREEZING RAIN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
COMMON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO INCLUDING THE I-70
CORRIDOR. AT LEAST LOCALIZED LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 0.05 IN/HR ARE LIKELY. MEANWHILE...MODERATE SNOW WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA/FAR
WESTERN IL THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...AS STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC/SPLIT UPPER FLOW EXISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA/PLAINS...LATE-EVENING ANALYZED
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX/EASTERN OK TO ROUGHLY
ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR OF MO. COINCIDENT WITH THE COLDER AIR NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY...COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND A GRADUALLY EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ARE READILY EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE/RADAR
IMAGERY RESPECTIVELY AS OF 05Z.

FOCUSED NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO INCREASING
WINTER-MIXED PRECIPITATION RATES OVERNIGHT FROM
EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO. EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL FURTHER AUGMENT PRECIPITATION RATES. THIS
IS EVIDENCED BY EPISODIC CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS THIS EVENING...ASIDE FROM OBSERVATIONAL/GUIDANCE
INDICATIONS OF VERY WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY OVERNIGHT WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR.

WHILE SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR INITIALLY...FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO THROUGH 09Z-12Z. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ROUGHLY 50
MILES EITHER SIDE /NORTH AND SOUTH/ OF I-70. HERE...NEAR-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WHILE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL ACCOUNT FOR A 1500-2000 M DEEP FULL-MELTING LAYER
BASED AROUND/ABOVE 900 MB AS SATURATION OTHERWISE QUICKLY OCCURS.

..GUYER.. 02/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39719249 39739158 39249095 38699126 38059348 37479621
38079641 38859572 39069407 39719249

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