MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0062

ACUS11 KWNS 041146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041145
ARZ000-OKZ000-041645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN AR...EXTREME E CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 041145Z - 041645Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS
AR THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES REACHING
0.20" OR MORE. THE GREATER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON ELEVATED
SURFACES FROM W CENTRAL INTO N CENTRAL AR.

DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPANDING QUICKLY OVER ERN OK/WRN AR
IN A ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE NOSE OF A 40+ KT
LLJ. A SURGE OF LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE LLJ
CORRIDOR...COMBINED WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY...WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFYING PRECIPITATION RATES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL FAVOR FREEZING
RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS A RESIDUAL COLD BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PERSIST BENEATH THE DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE
GREATER ICE ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED FROM W CENTRAL
TO N CENTRAL AR /GENERALLY W AND N OF LITTLE ROCK/...WHERE OVERNIGHT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S...AND THE
SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

..THOMPSON.. 02/04/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 35739123 35239150 34809190 34579233 34429283 34389357
34689429 35069471 35519507 35959496 36259432 36429315
36399194 36159139 35739123

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