MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0104

ACUS11 KWNS 140207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140207
VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-140800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...FAR NERN PA/NRN NJ/WRN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 140207Z - 140800Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOW AS IT SHIFTS
NWD AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BECOME COMMON WITH RATES TO 3 IN/HR
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

DISCUSSION...RECENT COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS CHARACTERIZE THE STRONGLY
FORCED ASCENT VIA DCVA AND FRONTOGENESIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST THAT WILL SHIFT
N/NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. NUMEROUS OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES OF 0.10
TO 0.30 IN/HR HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR ERN PA INTO WRN LONG ISLAND.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z OKX RAOB STILL SAMPLED A PRONOUNCED ABOVE-FREEZING
WARM NOSE IN THE LOW-LEVELS /TO 7 DEG C NEAR 850 MB/...THE 00Z ALB
RAOB REMAINED FULLY BELOW-FREEZING AND SATURATED THROUGH THE
LOW-LEVELS. AS ROBUST ASCENT OVERSPREADS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR. WITH A DEEP
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND HIGH
QPF...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR APPEAR QUITE LIKELY. MEAGER
ELEVATED BUOYANCY /ROOTED BETWEEN 700-600 MB/ WILL PROMOTE SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SNOWFALL RATES TO 3 IN/HR AT TIMES.

..GRAMS.. 02/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 43227264 41667356 40847438 40527535 40777572 41057589
41287584 43867457 44997415 44997172 43227264

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