MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0116

ACUS11 KWNS 200844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200843
MOZ000-ILZ000-201115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200843Z - 201115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
EAST NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...INTO PARTS OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AND AREAS TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 11-13Z. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
APPEARS LOW...AND THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE PERSISTENT ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED WHERE ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN ON THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB
JET IS UNDER RUNNING STRONGER MID-LEVEL INHIBITION. THIS IS ROUGHLY
DELINEATED BY THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED 700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LOADED GUN TYPE
SOUNDINGS...ABOVE THE RESIDUAL STABLE LAYER BASED AT THE
SURFACE...THE TENDENCY FOR WARMING ALOFT WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...APPEARS TO BE
SUPPRESSING CAPE...AND THE VIGOR OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
WHILE THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY
SUBSTANTIALLY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ST.
LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 11-13Z...ACTIVITY DOES
APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST...AND SHEAR IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR PERSISTENT...ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. THIS MAY
INCLUDE SUPERCELLS WITH SOME RISK FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL..AND GUST SURFACE WINDS.

..KERR/MEAD.. 02/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 38439353 38929047 37619006 37019147 36999328 37259412
37879442 38439353

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