DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101249
SWODY1
SPC AC 101247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S TX AND THE NW GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NW MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO TURN MORE
TOWARD THE E...IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY RELEGATED THE
SURFACE WARM SECTOR TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN THROUGH THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. STILL...AN INCREASE IN
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS S TX...AS THE ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NW
MEXICO CLOSED LOW REACHES THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHER PW AND GREATER
BUOYANCY NEAR THE TX COAST. THE CONVECTION WILL THEN PROGRESS
EWD/OFFSHORE INTO THE NW GULF...PERHAPS TAKING THE FORM OF AN
ORGANIZED MCS TONIGHT. SINCE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG AND MODEST BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ROOTED AROUND 850 MB
/ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS/...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OVER LAND.

...INTERIOR NW/NRN GREAT BASIN TODAY...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD/INLAND OVER ORE/WA AND
NRN CA TODAY...AND THEN SEWD TO THE NRN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. STEEP
LAPSE RATES BELOW 500 MB AND WEAK BUOYANCY WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH...AND SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 03/10/2014

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