DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181232
SWODY1
SPC AC 181230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL COVER MOST OF
CONUS FOR MOST OF PERIOD. LEADING/SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
NOW LOCATED OVER GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL -- IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS SC
AND ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE GA/NERN FL TODAY. MEANWHILE...WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
FROM NEB PANHANDLE SWWD ACROSS CO -- WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT
PIVOTS SEWD/EWD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND NRN OK BY 00Z. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHOULD TURN NEWD ACROSS MID-MS VALLEY...WITH 500-MB VORTICITY
AXIS REACHING TO NEAR DBQ-SPI-TBN LINE BY 19/12Z.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW OVER S FL...ACCOMPANIED BY THIN BAND OF
SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF LTG...WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 14Z.
FRONT EXTENDS WELL SSWWD ACROSS NWRN CARIBBEAN PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AHEAD OF CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH-PLAINS TROUGH ALOFT...11Z
SFC CHART FEATURED PRONOUNCED CYCLONE OVER NRN KS/SRN NEB...WITH
COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND OVER ERN NM. BY 00Z...LOW
SHOULD REACH MCI AREA...WITH COLD FRONT TO SRN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX.
BY 12Z...LOW SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR ORD-MKE CORRIDOR...WITH COLD FRONT
TO SRN IL...SERN AR AND S-CENTRAL TX.

...MIDWEST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING OVER
OZARKS REGION...AMIDST STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FRONTAL
FORCING. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STABILITY ALOFT WILL
CAP THIS ACTIVITY IN LOWER MIDLEVELS AND KEEP IT TOO SHALLOW FOR LTG
PRODUCTION.

MOSTLY AFTER 00Z...SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH
SPORADIC/ISOLATED LTG...MAY FORM IN MID-MS VALLEY REGION. FOLLOWING
FL/CARIBBEAN FRONT...CONTINENTAL AIR MASS CROSSING GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO MODIFY THROUGH PERIOD...THOUGH THAT PROCESS WILL REMAIN
TOO INCOMPLETE TO YIELD SUBSTANTIALLY MOIST TRAJECTORIES FOR
INCLUSION IN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CONUS. STILL...MRGL
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH STG ISENTROPIC ASCENT...LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE AND STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE PRECIP. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE
BELOW 200 J/KG....EXTENDING INTO FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS FOR LTG
GENERATION BUT MEAGER ENOUGH TO LIMIT COVERAGE/DURATION.

..EDWARDS/MOSIER.. 03/18/2014

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