DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150056
SWODY1
SPC AC 150055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
THE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER...WHICH DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME...WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY AS SUPPORTING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...
ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME REMNANT
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
COLD POOL...NEAR THE BITTERROOT MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...AS THE UPPER IMPULSE BEGINS TO DIG MORE SHARPLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT
EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH/DISSIPATE BY THE 02-03Z TIME
FRAME...IF NOT BEFORE.

...SRN PLATEAU/ROCKIES INTO SW TEXAS AND PARTS OF SRN PLAINS...
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR THE MOGOLLON RIM AND PLATEAU REGION OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO WANE. WITH FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING...MOST REMAINING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE
02-03Z TIME FRAME.

EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR. BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE BY 03-04Z...AS MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AIDED BY 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY AND TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATER TONIGHT
COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.

..KERR.. 03/15/2014

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.