DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201243
SWODY1
SPC AC 201241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS MOST OF
CONUS THROUGH PERIOD. MOSTLY POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH -- NOW EXTENDING
FROM LOWER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MS DELTA REGION AND
S TX -- IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN PERIOD WHILE MOVING
OFFSHORE REMAINDER ATLC COAST. COMPACT PERTURBATION NOW OVER NRN
ROCKIES IS FCST TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ESEWD TO WRN DAKOTAS BY
00Z...REACHING MN WITHIN 12 HOURS THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE...WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OFFSHORE BAJA SPUR SHOULD MOVE ENEWD
ACROSS NWRN MEX THROUGH PERIOD...REACHING FAR W TX AND PERMIAN BASIN
REGION OVERNIGHT.

AT SFC...LOW NOW OVER WRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS MT TODAY AND STRENGTHEN...REACHING NWRN ND BY 00Z AND
NRN MN BY 12Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD
ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MN...SWRN IA...CENTRAL KS...AND
EXTREME NERN NM.

...NRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER WRN
PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA AND SPREAD/SHIFT ESEWD...DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE OVER MN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DCVA/ASCENT ALOFT PRECEDING STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD STEEPEN LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FAVORABLY. THAT FACTOR...ALONG WITH MEAGER MOISTENING THROUGH
ADVECTION/TRANSPORT ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE 100-200 J/KG. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CAPE
DENSITY BUT BUOYANCY EXTENDING VERTICALLY INTO FAVORABLE ICING
LAYERS FOR LTG PRODUCTION. LIFT ALSO WILL BE AIDED BY INTENSIFYING
MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE AROUND DEEPENING LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE.

...W TX...
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM ARW-KF AND MOSTLY ARW MEMBERS OF SREF PACKAGE
INDICATES ISOLATED/ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR END OF PERIOD OR
EARLY DAY-2 OVER THIS REGION. CONSENSUS OF OTHER PROGS IS MORE
RESTRAINED. COMBINATION OF MEAGER LOW-MIDDLE-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND DCVA AHEAD OF
SRN-STREAM TROUGH MAY FOSTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A COUPLE
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. CONDITIONAL NATURE OF TSTM THREAT AND
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE GEN THUNDER AREA FOR NOW.

..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2014

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