DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210529
SWODY1
SPC AC 210527

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WITH SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE
IMPULSES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO SWRN KS AND NERN NM
WILL MOVE SOUTH...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NERN
U.S. SWWD THROUGH NRN AND SWRN TX BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR RESIDES ALONG THE TX COASTAL AREA.
WITH SLY WINDS IN PLACE EAST OF LEE TROUGH...THIS MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT THROUGH TX PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE...CONTRIBUTING TO 400-800 J/KG MLCAPE
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SOME DISTANCE NORTH OF THE SWD
ADVANCING FRONT AS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED ABOVE THE SFC FRONTAL
ZONE. IT APPEARS A CAPPING INVERSION AT THE BASE OF THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TO SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SWD MOVING
COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY WHERE DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES INTERACTS WITH THE MORE
SHALLOW FRONTAL CIRCULATION. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO NORTH TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 03/21/2014

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