DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221236
SWODY1
SPC AC 221235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES...A POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH ERN CANADA AND THE N-CNTRL CONUS. THE
RESULTANT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION
WILL ENHANCE THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FIELD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
EWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...TO THE NORTH OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO
MAINE BY AFTERNOON WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE WRN SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY DECELERATE
OVER TX IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE WHICH WILL
PROGRESS FROM CNTRL OR ERN TX TO SRN MS BY 23/12Z.

...PORTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY INTO E-CNTRL/SERN TX THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...

12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER OVER TX
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN BENEATH A PRONOUNCED CAP ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML
WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT MLCAPE
OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE
EXTENT...DURATION...AND INTENSITY OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN THE CAP AND
SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS. SHOULD STORMS FORM AND BECOME
SUSTAINED...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL YIELD LONG
HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A LOW-PROBABILITY
RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 03/22/2014

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