DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231234
SWODY1
SPC AC 231233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFICATION OF THE POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS FORECAST DURING
THE DAY ONE PERIOD...IN PART DUE TO THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SEWD MOVEMENT OF AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A LARGELY ZONAL
SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL PERSIST FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE S-CNTRL AND
SERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE NC COAST SWWD TO
MIDDLE TX COAST AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ADVANCE SEWD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES /EXCEPT
PERHAPS THE SRN FL PENINSULA/ BY 24/12Z.

...CNTRL GULF COAST THIS MORNING...

A SMALL BOWING COMPLEX OVER S-CNTRL MS AS OF 12Z INITIATED OVER FAR
ERN TX EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE AND PERHAPS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUB-TROPICAL AIR STREAM. OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS
MCS IS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WHERE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING
MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
STRONG WLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD /AND RESULTANT FAST STORM
MOTION/...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE SEWD TOWARD THE COAST.

...CNTRL/SRN TX TO SRN ATLANTIC COAST...

OUTSIDE OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
SECTION...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT
WHERE FORCING MECHANISMS SUCH AS WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE
AUGMENTED BY LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL
MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS OVER TX OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML. BUT IN GENERAL...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
APPEARS QUITE LOW.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 03/23/2014

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