DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250623
SWODY1
SPC AC 250621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH -- AND SURROUNDING CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ENCOMPASSING
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT QUICKLY EWD WITH TIME...ADVANCING TOWARD/INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN IS FORECAST...AS
A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW
SHIFT INTO THE WRN U.S. -- AND AID IN BREAKING DOWN THE UPSTREAM
RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT THE WRN RIDGE...SHIFTING EWD FROM
NRN BAJA CA TO NM/FAR W TX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...THREE AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. IN THE
WEST...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PAC NW AND
VICINITY...AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS INLAND. SPORADIC
LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS.

TO THE S...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF AZ AND NM THROUGH THE DAY...AND LATER INTO
THE WRN HALF OF TX OVERNIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE DESERT SW AND ADJACENT
NWRN MEXICO.

FINALLY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS S FL
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS A LINGERING SURFACE FRONT
FINALLY SWEEPS SWD/OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.

..GOSS.. 03/25/2014

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