ACUS01 KWNS 081242
SWODY1
SPC AC 081240
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST SAT MAR 08 2014
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER AZ/NM WILL DIG GENERALLY SWD TO NW
MEXICO...IN RESPONSE TO SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES/RIDGING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD INTO CENTRAL TX TODAY AND S TX TONIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO S TX...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED TO THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES.
HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS S TX REVEAL MUCAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG AND A LITTLE STRONGER CAP THAN FORECAST. THUS...IT
WILL TAKE MANY HOURS OF ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING/MOISTENING AND
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT TO BOOST BUOYANCY AND REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
THE ONGOING MIDLEVEL CONVECTION FROM NE OK INTO SW MO WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS GIVEN THE MEAGER CAPE IN MORNING
SOUNDINGS. FARTHER S...THE AFOREMENTIONED DESTABILIZATION AND
ASCENT WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL/S CENTRAL TX BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY N OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WHERE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING
BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD A FEW LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SW NM/SE AZ.
..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 03/08/2014
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