DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261241
SWODY1
SPC AC 261239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER
THE CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE COASTAL NORTHEAST
STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS WHILE
CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY QUITE LIMITED...AN EASTWARD-SHIFTING
EASTERN STATES ANTICYCLONE AND ROCKIES LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL NORTHWARD MOISTURE INCREASE ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE NEAR/ABOVE THE SURFACE...IN CONCERT WITH AN INCREASINGLY
STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN
EASTWARD-EXPANDING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/ADJACENT MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...AN EASTWARD-SPREADING JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES/FOUR CORNERS...AND AN ADDITIONAL LOW NEAR
THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL ALSO BE FACTORS IN ISOLATED
TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES/WEST.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE /GENERALLY 40 F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OR LESS/ WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK IN A
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OTHERWISE CONDUCIVE FOR HIGH-BASED
MULTICELLS/PERHAPS SUPERCELLS. REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT /ALBEIT
MEAGER/ BUOYANCY EXIST AROUND PEAK HEATING FOR SOME SUSTAINED
TSTMS...AND GIVEN A DRY/DEEPLY MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER...A FEW
STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS/MICROBURSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE SCENARIO APPEARS MARGINAL IN
TERMS OF SEVERE RISK...ANY NEED FOR WIND-RELATED PROBABILITIES WILL
BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 03/26/2014

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