DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041943
SWODY1
SPC AC 041941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CST TUE MAR 04 2014

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY CHANGE TO THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN TO REMOVE ALL EXCEPT EXTREME
SERN TX FROM GENERAL THUNDER. OTHERWISE...CURRENT DAY 1 FORECAST
STILL APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY.

..DIAL.. 03/04/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE D1
PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST BEING A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND
AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO SRN HIGH PLAINS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...MID-MORNING MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
DATA INDICATED A SURFACE FRONT FROM THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO TO
CNTRL FL PENINSULA. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP
SLIGHTLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO THE GULF COAST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHILE
THE FL PENINSULA SEGMENT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SWD ALONG IT FROM ERN WY TO ERN NM/WRN TX. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY TONIGHT.

...GULF COAST...

DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE TO PROMOTE
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.

...CNTRL ROCKIES...

FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

...PACIFIC NW COAST...

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/-139W WILL APPROACH THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHTING ACTIVITY
WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING ONSHORE AROUND 05/12Z.

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