DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141938
SWODY1
SPC AC 141937

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
GENERAL FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK...THOUGH THE THUNDER AREA
OVER THE TX/OK VICINITY FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD IS BEING REMOVED
ATTM. THOUGH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS A BROAD AREA E OF THE CURRENT AZ/NM THUNDER AREA --
ANYWHERE FROM SRN/ERN NM EWD ACROSS WRN OK/NWRN TX...COVERAGE ACROSS
THIS BROAD ZONE SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT PRIOR TO THE
CONVECTIVE INCREASE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/14/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...WEAK SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. NRN STREAM
SYSTEM NOW ENTERING WA SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO WY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WHILE SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW OVER AZ ASSUMES A MORE NEUTRAL
TILT AS IT MOVES E INTO ERN NM/FAR W TX. DOWNSTREAM FROM BOTH
SYSTEMS...LEE TROUGHING/WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED AT THE SFC
OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS. MODEST RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE SRN PLNS BETWEEN NOW AND SAT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.
SUFFICIENT ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR TO SUPPORT SCTD
ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE RED RVR VLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY E
OF AZ UPR IMPULSE.

...AZ/NM TODAY...
ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL/NRN AZ/NM AS SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES
REGION ALREADY SUBJECT TO MID-LVL MOISTENING/ASCENT AHEAD OF AZ UPR
TROUGH. SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR
100-300 J/KG MLCAPE. THE TSTM THREAT MAY LINGER INTO MID-EVE...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W-E WITH EWD MOVEMENT OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT.

...SRN PLNS AFTER 09Z...
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS AS MODEST LWR
TROPOSPHERIC SSW FLOW BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY SAT ALLOWS FOR
APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE 925-850 MB LAYER AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPR TROUGH. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST FROM PARTS OF NW TX AND
THE RED RVR VLY E/NE INTO PARTS OF SRN OK...ALTHOUGH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION LIKELY WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
AFTER 12Z SAT. BUT SUFFICIENT JUXTAPOSITIONING OF LIFT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES MAY OCCUR TO
PROMOTE HAIL IN A FEW CELLS. WHILE MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG MAY
DEVELOP...MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE.

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