DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221952
SWODY1
SPC AC 221950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...E CNTRL TX...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR WACO TX WHERE HOLES IN THE CIRRUS
REVEAL A DEEPENING CU FIELD. THIS AREA OF RELATIVE HEATING EXTENDS
UPSTREAM SEWD TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA. AS GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION
PERSISTS...CONVERGENCE ON THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE ESEWD
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. LONG HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR A FEW LONG-LIVED
CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL.

...SERN OK INTO THE ARKLATEX...
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS PERSIST IN THIS AREA...FED BY MODEST
THETA-E ADVECTION ATOP THE SURFACE STABLE LAYER. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 202.

..JEWELL.. 03/22/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014/

...CENTRAL/SE TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD FROM CENTRAL/N TX
THIS MORNING TO S CENTRAL/SE TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY
SUBTLE SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT ARE EMBEDDED IN THE SRN STREAM WHICH WILL
REMAIN FROM THE US/MEXICO BORDER EWD TO THE GULF COAST STATES.
THUS...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD
WILL BE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IN TX.

THE LOW LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AND NEAR 70 F ALONG
THE MIDDLE/LOWER TX COAST. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AS WELL AS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING...WITH ONLY SMALL CLOUD BREAKS
NOTED JUST W OF COLLEGE STATION. 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WARM INTO THE 80S TO REMOVE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STILL...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ANY CLOUD
BREAKS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE AUSTIN-WACO-COLLEGE
STATION AREA. IF STORMS FORM...THE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT WOULD SUPPORT A RISK
FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...SE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD TO JUST OFF THE FL ATLANTIC
COAST IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. IN THE INTERIM...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE SE FL
COAST. FARTHER N...THE NRN EXTENT OF A MOISTURE SURGE WILL BRUSH
THE GA/SC/SRN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

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