DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221621
SWODY1
SPC AC 221620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL/SE TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD FROM CENTRAL/N TX
THIS MORNING TO S CENTRAL/SE TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY
SUBTLE SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT ARE EMBEDDED IN THE SRN STREAM WHICH WILL
REMAIN FROM THE US/MEXICO BORDER EWD TO THE GULF COAST STATES.
THUS...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD
WILL BE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IN TX.

THE LOW LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AND NEAR 70 F ALONG
THE MIDDLE/LOWER TX COAST. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AS WELL AS HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING...WITH ONLY SMALL CLOUD BREAKS
NOTED JUST W OF COLLEGE STATION. 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WARM INTO THE 80S TO REMOVE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STILL...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ANY CLOUD
BREAKS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE AUSTIN-WACO-COLLEGE
STATION AREA. IF STORMS FORM...THE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT WOULD SUPPORT A RISK
FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...SE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD TO JUST OFF THE FL ATLANTIC
COAST IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. IN THE INTERIM...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE SE FL
COAST. FARTHER N...THE NRN EXTENT OF A MOISTURE SURGE WILL BRUSH
THE GA/SC/SRN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 03/22/2014

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.