DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141731
SWODY2
SPC AC 141730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NERN QUARTER
OF TX AND VICINITY...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN AN UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND
STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER ERN CANADA AND THE ADJACENT NERN CONUS...A
SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD OUT OF ERN NM ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK.

VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
TROUGH...AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS EVENTUALLY INTERACTS/COALESCES WITH THE SRN STREAM FEATURE.
WITH THIS INTERACTION/PHASING BEING HANDLED POORLY BY THE
MODELS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS -- AND FRONTAL
EVOLUTION/ADVANCE -- IS ALSO NOT WELL HANDLED. OVERALL
HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND A FRONTAL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS REGION THROUGH A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS APPARENT ACROSS THIS REGION.

...NERN QUARTER OF TX AND VICINITY...
AFOREMENTIONED/SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS
EMERGING ON DAY 2 COMPLICATE ATTEMPTS TO ASCERTAIN DETAILS OF THE
SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE REGION. STILL...BROAD INDICATIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE E TX VICINITY ON SATURDAY.

ATTM...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN ACROSS
PARTS OF WRN OK AND ADJACENT NWRN TX...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING VORT MAX. HERE
THOUGH...COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK CAPE AND MODEST SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT SEVERE RISK...AS STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS OK THROUGH THE DAY.

FARTHER SE INTO TX...STRONGER SHEAR -- ENHANCED BY A 50 TO 60 KT
WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM -- IS
PROGGED...BUT A WARM LEVEL BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB SHOULD SERVE TO
LIMIT BOTH SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY
HOWEVER...MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND THE EWD ADVANCE OF ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD --
AND SOMEWHAT MORE INTENSE -- CONVECTION...SPREADING OUT OF CENTRAL
TX INTO THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
VEERING/INCREASING OF THE FLOW FIELD WITH HEIGHT...AMPLE CAPE FOR
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WOULD SUGGEST A RISK FOR EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A
FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

LATER -- DEPENDING UPON ACTUAL DEGREE OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG A DEVELOPING
SURFACE COLD FRONT...A LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND COULD EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ALONG WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

FINALLY -- DEPENDING AGAIN UPON SYSTEM EVOLUTION WHICH REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED SEVERE RISK COULD EVOLVE AS FAR E
AS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION SPREAD INTO/ACROSS THIS REGION
LATE. AS SLY FLOW ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE NWD...AMPLE DESTABILIZATION
MAY ENSUE...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THIS REGION -- WITHIN A BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
AMPLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

..GOSS.. 03/14/2014

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