DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201658
SWODY2
SPC AC 201657

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A ZONAL UPPER-FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER WRN CANADA...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOL AIR MASS...A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SWD AND WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM NWRN TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY
00Z.

S OF THIS FRONT...A PLUME OF WELL-MIXED MID-50S F DEWPOINTS SHOULD
EXTEND NWD ACROSS TX INTO SRN OK...WHERE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN LATE DAY/OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS.

...SRN OK INTO NRN TX...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH A PLUME OF
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING FROM WRN TX NEWD INTO SRN OK.
DESPITE A RETURN OF LOWER TO MID 50S F DEWPOINTS...A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT...MOISTENING AND LIFT SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CAPPING LAYER
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. WHILE THE WEAK LIFT AND ANTECEDENT CAPPING
DOES LEND CONDITIONALITY TO THIS EVENT...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SUGGEST MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 03/20/2014

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