DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250524
SWODY2
SPC AC 250523

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF AN AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED DEEP
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE
SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES
EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL BECOME PROMINENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST IN MORE OR LESS PIECEMEAL
FASHION. MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING
THE SMALLER SCALE DEVELOPMENTS...BUT THE SPREAD /AT LEAST BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS/ APPEARS TO BE DECREASING SOMEWHAT CONCERNING ONE
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...WHICH MAY RAPIDLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY.

A 50-70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE NOSING ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTRIBUTING TO
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI...IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING INTO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A RESIDUAL RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION WILL SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...VIA THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...WHILE MOISTENING ALSO OCCURS ABOVE THE SLOWLY MODIFYING
SURFACE BASED STABLE LAYER FROM UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TOWARD THE
OZARKS. BUT THE SEASONABLY MODEST NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
ASSOCIATED STEEPENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF THE
PLAINS...TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST BENEATH THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS THE WEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR...BUT STILL SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE
PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 03/25/2014

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