DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010738
SWODY3
SPC AC 010737

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST EARLY MON MORNING AND MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...CLEARING
ALL OF THE SERN CONUS ASIDE FROM THE FL PENINSULA BY EARLY TUES. AS
A FRONTAL WAVE INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS ADVANCES
ENEWD AND AWAY FROM HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO THE S...ANY PRE-FRONTAL
BUOYANCY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND VICINITY MON MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS DEEP SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY THE TAIL END OF A
MID-LEVEL JET CORE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...POOR
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
MITIGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL.

ALSO...ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRECEDING A LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN-STREAM
IMPULSE MAY SPREAD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX ATOP A SFC-BASED COLD DOME.
MODEST ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL...MAINLY FOR MON NIGHT. THE
LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LIMITED DEEP ASCENT WILL LARGELY
PRECLUDE ANY SVR RISK.

OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
STABLE/DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

..COHEN.. 03/01/2014

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