DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. BY THURSDAY...WITH A BELT OF
WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC MOST PROMINENT.
WITHIN THIS REGIME...THE REMNANTS OF AN INLAND ADVANCING LARGER
SCALE TROUGH APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR
U.S...INCLUDING ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE THAT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z
THURSDAY...BEFORE TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM NOW EVIDENT IN MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE...IT STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT STRONGER
MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW FIELDS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST REGION
BEFORE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND RETURN FLOW IS
ABLE TO YIELD A SEASONABLY MOIST WARM SECTOR. BUT A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY DOES APPEAR TO EXIST FOR MODEST WARM SECTOR MOISTENING
AND DESTABILIZATION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY FROM THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...FROM MIDDAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

...LWR CNTRL PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU/MID MS VALLEY...
DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BY AROUND 18Z NEAR
THE SURFACE FRONTAL LOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS/WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTHWARD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS NORTHEAST TEXAS. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION...EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT AT LEAST LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS EASTWARD. AND TORNADOES MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE AND
CONTRIBUTES TO THE EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS THURSDAY
EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN THAN FARTHER NORTH.
BUT A DISTINCTLY SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE IN THE PRESENCE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT AND...PROBABLY...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
UPPER FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE MORE MODERATE THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH...BUT SIZABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER BASED CAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE PRESENCE OF BETTER MOISTURE
INFLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND AN UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER BEFORE
ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND DEVELOPS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 03/25/2014

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