DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090758
SWODY3
SPC AC 090757

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CST SUN MAR 09 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TN VALLEY...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TN VALLEY REGION
DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD AS NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SFC
PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL IL...SWWD ACROSS SRN MO INTO CNTRL
OK AT 12/00Z. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM. HOWEVER...WEAK INHIBITION MAY
SUPPRESS SFC-BASED CONVECTION WITH FRONTAL UPLIFT LIKELY BEING
REQUIRED FOR TSTM INITIATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 400 J/KG COULD BE NOTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
PROSPECT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NRN MEXICO SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO THE ERN GULF BASIN LATE IN
THE PERIOD. GFS ALLOWS MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA LATE. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND LESS BUOYANT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL NOT INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN SPEED/MOVEMENT OF NRN MEXICO/SOUTH TX SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH.

..DARROW.. 03/09/2014

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