DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010938
SWOD48
SPC AC 010938

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2014

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS -- D6/THU-D7/FRI...
THE CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FOR A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS
DURING MIDDLE/LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK AND INTERACT
WITH A REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS PROCESS COULD INDUCE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE GULF WATERS...YIELDING POLEWARD FLUXES OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE FL PENINSULA/KEYS FOR LATE WEEK. WITH STRONG
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO COINCIDE WITH ANY
CYCLONE-RELATED WARM SECTOR...SVR STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS. SVR PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...ONGOING DISPERSION AMONGST
MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES AND QUALITY OF WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE/BUOYANCY REMAIN TOO
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THE DELINEATION OF ANY AOA-30-PERCENT SVR
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 03/01/2014

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