MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0202

ACUS11 KWNS 221905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221904
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-222100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN OK...NERN TX...SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221904Z - 222100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SVR HAIL IS UNLIKELY...AND A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN A ZONE
OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE A SFC-BASED COOL DOME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE RED RIVER. LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS PARTIALLY
SAMPLED BY SRX/SHV VWP DATA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPLITTING
CELLS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING PW ONLY AROUND 1 INCH PER
GPS DATA...ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR SVR HAIL
POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 03/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33939646 34359614 34489490 34209373 33669328 33379377
33249500 33469621 33939646

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