MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0203

ACUS11 KWNS 222044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222043
TXZ000-222245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222043Z - 222245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SVR HAIL MAY DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD/ESEWD TOWARD SE TX
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...BREAKS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE SUPPORTING 0-3-KM LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM S OF WACO TO NRN PARTS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NEGLIGIBLE MLCINH. MEANWHILE...VIS
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CU FIELD BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED
ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 35 NNW TYR TO 10 NW ACT
TO 30 SE JCT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO...PARTICULARLY WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED NEAR A MODEST FRONTAL INFLECTION -- CURRENTLY ANALYZED 50
SE BWD. EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCES AROUND 45-60 KT MAY
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SUSTAINED EWD/ESEWD-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH
POSSIBLE SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK...KEEPING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MINIMAL.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 03/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 31659727 31649583 31329508 30829491 30189577 30189743
30969834 31659727

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.