MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0225

ACUS11 KWNS 291730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291730
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-292000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SC...S-CNTRL NC...FAR ERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291730Z - 292000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED DISCRETE TSTMS LIKELY TO FORM ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH. INTENSITY/COVERAGE MAY REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT
A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1006 MB CYCLONE NEAR TRI
IN NERN TN WITH A TROUGH ARCING SWD THROUGH CNTRL GA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT IN ERN AL. ROBUST INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT...WHILE CU HAVE
GRADUALLY DEVELOPED ALONG IT. CONTINUED HEATING OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 70S INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL SUPPORT WEAK
BUOYANCY AMIDST UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. ALTHOUGH
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR...STRENGTHENING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THROUGH INCREASED MID-LEVEL DCVA SHOULD HELP
FOSTER DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BY PEAK
HEATING AS IT SHIFTS NEWD. GENERALLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES.
NEVERTHELESS...SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

..GRAMS/HART.. 03/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35588046 35467969 35197938 33677947 32018123 31968173
32078201 33148191 34638211 35008183 35408121 35588046