Georgia-Florida SKYWARN

Saturday, August 30, 2008

KKEY [301723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 301723
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
123 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1238 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
08/30/2008 M48 MPH GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUSTS OF 42 KNOTS...OR 48 MPH...WAS MEASURED BY
THE C-MAN STATION AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT AT 1238 PM EDT.
THIS GUST WAS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING RAINBAND FROM HURRICANE GUSTAV.

AALBANES

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301719
SWODY2
SPC AC 301717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG THE SERN LA COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD AS WRN U.S. TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND EFFECTIVELY BUILDS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA.
ELSEWHERE...HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SHELF WATERS OFF
THE SERN LA COAST.

...THE FL KEYS INTO THE SERN LA COAST...

LATEST GFS AND NHC GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV
FROM APPROXIMATELY 230 W EYW AT 31/12Z TO NEAR 100 S BVE BY 01/12Z.
OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE IMPACTING THE LOWER KEYS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD WITH
AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF
TORNADOES. THEREAFTER...THE SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SERN LA COAST.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A SMALL TORNADO RISK /GENERALLY LESS THAN 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY/ WILL EXIST FROM THE FL KEYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
WRN FL PENINSULAR COAST WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LATE OVER SERN LA.
THEREFORE...THE 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY LINE AND A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS AREA.

...NRN PLAINS...

SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER FAR SERN MT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD INTO
NWRN SD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SAGGING SEWD
THROUGH ERN MT...NRN WY AND THE WRN DAKOTAS. STRONG HEATING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A WARM EML IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S/ MAY CAP MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J PER KG/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALONG OR PERHAPS IN
IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AS SUSTAINED MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG
THE FRONT OVERCOMES CAP.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL RESIDE TO THE N/NW OF FRONTAL ZONE WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT IN THE WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS...A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...ERN GREAT BASIN/LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...

PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INTENSIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH. PW VALUES OF 0.7-1.0
INCH COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING
500-1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN MOST SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL UT INTO SERN ID/WRN WY...COINCIDENT WITH 40-50 KT
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING FROM THE BASE OF EVOLVING TROUGH. AS
SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY TEND
TO LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 08/30/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301630
SWODY1
SPC AC 301627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL KEYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY S OF WRN CUBA WHILE MOVING
GENERALLY TO THE NW. THE OUTER NERN CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE KEYS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MAIN OUTER BAND THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE FL STRAITS...WHILE EXTRAPOLATION OF RECENT
STORM MOTION AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK BOTH SUGGEST THAT
THIS MORE FAVORABLE CORRIDOR WILL JUST BRUSH THE LOWER KEYS LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STILL...THE FL KEYS AREA WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY...AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT A SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE COULD
BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY TONIGHT.

...MT/ND AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
ERN MT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...WHILE MID 50S DEWPOINTS ARE STILL LOCATED S NEAR AND S OF
I-90. SOME OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD TOWARD ND IN
RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS SE MT AND INCREASING SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO NW ND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
COULD OCCUR ACROSS N/NW ND THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT IF STORMS
FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS RATHER LOW.

FARTHER W...MT WILL BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PAC NW. THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS WRN AND NRN MT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER MT...THOUGH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
MAY DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE NWD
SPREAD OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NRN FRINGES OF THE GREAT BASIN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME. THE INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS...DESPITE THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

...SE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON...
DAYTIME HEATING...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL
ALL COMBINE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SE GA TO SRN NC. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH COINCIDES WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY.
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...THUS A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...CENTRAL AND WRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING STORMS WILL SLOW DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER EXTREME WRN AZ/SE CA/SE NV.
HOWEVER...STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR FARTHER E INTO CENTRAL
AZ...WHERE MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PRONOUNCED ELY MID LEVEL FLOW OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS ALREADY WEAKENED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE
FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SLY AND CONTINUE WEAKENING LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THUS...THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS...THOUGH ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WRN AZ WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...KS/OK/AR THIS AFTERNOON...
A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KS ACROSS NE OK INTO
CENTRAL AR. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ACROSS
THIS AREA...WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SELY AS OPPOSED TO
NELY YESTERDAY. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 08/30/2008

KKEY [301615]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 301615
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1214 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1112 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
08/30/2008 M51 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 44 KTS...OR 51 MPH...WAS MEASURED BY THE
C-MAN STATION ON SAND KEY LIGHT AT 1112 AM EDT. THIS GUST
WAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
RAINBAND FROM HURRICANE GUSTAV.

ROSS

KKEY [301543]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 301543
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1143 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1048 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
08/30/2008 M55 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 48 KTS...OR 55 MPH...WAS MEASURED BY THE
C-MAN STATION ON SAND KEY LIGHT...AT 1048 EDT. THIS GUST
WAS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING RAINBAND FROM HURRICANE GUSTAV.

ROSS

KPUB [301521]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 301521
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
921 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM HEAVY RAIN 20 S HOLLY 37.77N 102.12W
08/30/2008 M0.30 INCH PROWERS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. FAMILY MEMBER...18S OF HOLLY...
2.30 PRECIPITATION.

RMG

KKEY [301355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 301355
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
954 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.12W
08/30/2008 M39.00 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS FROM THE EAST WAS MEASURED DURING
A PASSING THUNDERSTORM AT THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN
STATION. ANEMOMETER HEIGHT 159 FEET ABOVE MSL.

KASPER

KEAX [301353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301353
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
853 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 PM TSTM WND DMG HARRISONVILLE 38.66N 94.35W
08/28/2008 CASS MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN - TIME ESTIMATED

KEAX [301336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 301336
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
836 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM TSTM WND DMG HOLDEN 38.71N 93.99W
08/28/2008 JOHNSON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301255
SWODY1
SPC AC 301252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH PERIOD. AS A
PRECURSOR TO DEEP TROUGHING FCST TO DEVELOP IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS
ACROSS ERN CONUS...EXPECT HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENTS ACROSS MUCH OF NERN GREAT BASIN AND NRN
ROCKIES...AS TROUGHING SHIFTS EWD FROM NERN PACIFIC. AS THIS
OCCURS...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS 4-CORNERS
REGION...WITH PRIMARY ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING/REDEVELOPING EWD TO MID
MS VALLEY REGION. PERSISTENT/WEAK TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CONUS.

AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE IS EVIDENT FROM SRN ONT SWWD ACROSS OH AND SRN
OZARKS...OK...NERN NM. ERN PORTION OF FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
NERN CONUS...WHILE TRAILING PORTION OVER LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN
PLAINS BECOMES MORE ILL-DEFINED. SRN HIGH PLAINS SEGMENT OF THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD RETREAT NWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS...DEMARCATING
NRN FRINGE OF SELY RETURN FLOW AT LEAST AS MUCH FOR MOISTURE AS FOR
THERMAL IDENTITY OF AIR MASS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO
COMBINATION OF LEE-SIDE AND FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL/SERN MT. BY 31/00Z...STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL
EXTEND FROM SWRN MB SWWD THROUGH MT LOW ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN MT AND
SRN ID...WITH LEE TROUGHING SSEWD ACROSS ERN WY AND ERN CO.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...NRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST INTO EVENING ALONG OR BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT...IN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVEMENT OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION...MOVING OVER
DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER...SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STG/LOCALLY SVR
GUSTS WITH MOST PERSISTENT/INTENSE TSTMS. STG LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...KEEPING BUOYANCY WEAK
AND LIMITING COVERAGE/DURATION OF TSTMS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MLCAPES LESS THAN 250 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS REGION DURING MOST
UNSTABLE PERIOD OF MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TSTM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
AFTER DARK IN ELEVATED WAA REGIME...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE IN
NE-SW ALIGNED BAND OF TSTMS. HOWEVER...MUCAPES STILL WILL BE RATHER
WEAK -- GENERALLY AOB 250 J/KG. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...ORGANIZED
SVR THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL ATTM FOR PROBABILITIES
SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

...MID MS VALLEY TO S-CENTRAL PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE. COMBINATION OF WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...DIURNAL HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE WILL
RESULT IN WEAK CINH AND TSTM INITIATION...SOME OF WHICH MAY EVOLVE
UPSCALE INTO A FEW OUTFLOW-DOMINANT/MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. MLCAPES
2500-3000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS...BUT WITH
VERY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WINDS UNDER UPPER RIDGING...E.G. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES LESS THAN 5 KT IN NAM-KF FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH
OF REGION.

...SWRN CONUS...
AFOREMENTIONED BREAKDOWN OF UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING OF
HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT AND OF DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR...ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE VEERING/WEAKENING OF MIDLEVEL WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
AZ. THERFORE...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS FCST TO
DECREASE RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS...INCLUDING THREAT FOR TSTMS TO
PRODUCE AMALGAMATED OUTFLOWS ACROSS DESERTS. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD YIELD WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
OF THESE MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS.

...LOWER-MIDDLE FL KEYS...
NHC TRACK AND WIND RADII FCSTS INDICATE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS
WELL SW OF THIS REGION...BUT THAT PERIPHERAL NERN QUADRANT OF
CIRCULATION ENVELOPE MAY BRUSH ACROSS KEYS MAINLY DURING LATTER HALF
OF PERIOD. FCST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE TURNING WITH HEIGHT
IN LOW LEVELS...EXPANDING IN SIZE WITH SWWD EXTENT DOWN KEYS. A FEW
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN OUTERMOST BANDS...AS WELL AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION WITH ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE/PERSISTENT
CELLS. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE MRGL/SUB-CATEGORICAL TORNADO
PROBABILITIES ATTM. ANY EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF PERIPHERAL LOW
LEVEL WINDS OR RIGHTWARD SHIFT IN PATH WOULD INCREASE TORNADO
THREAT...AND DECREASE PROBABILITIES WITH MORE WWD TRACK OR
WEAKER/SMALLER WIND ENVELOPE.

..DIAL/EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 08/30/2008

KDDC [301222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 301222
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
722 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 N BIG BOW 37.68N 101.56W
08/30/2008 M3.40 INCH STANTON KS AMATEUR RADIO

THIS WAS A 24-HOUR AMOUNT REPORT.

BURKE

KDDC [301211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDDC 301211
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
711 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0748 PM HAIL 13 S COLDWATER 37.07N 99.34W
08/29/2008 E0.88 INCH COMANCHE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0815 PM HAIL 8 S COLDWATER 37.14N 99.34W
08/29/2008 E1.00 INCH COMANCHE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0815 PM HAIL 7 SSW COLDWATER 37.16N 99.39W
08/29/2008 E1.00 INCH COMANCHE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0838 PM HAIL 5 S COLDWATER 37.19N 99.34W
08/29/2008 E1.50 INCH COMANCHE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 W SYRACUSE 37.98N 101.82W
08/29/2008 M1.20 INCH HAMILTON KS CO-OP OBSERVER

1020 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSE INGALLS 37.77N 100.42W
08/29/2008 M1.05 INCH GRAY KS CO-OP OBSERVER

1110 PM HAIL JOHNSON CITY 37.57N 101.75W
08/29/2008 M1.00 INCH STANTON KS COUNTY OFFICIAL

BURKE

KKEY [301107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 301107
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
707 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0542 AM TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
08/30/2008 M39 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS WAS MEASURED AT THE
MOLASSES REEF LIGHT C-MAN STATION AT 542 AM EDT.

WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 873

WWUS20 KWNS 300903
SEL3
SPC WW 300903
AZZ000-300900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 873
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
203 AM MST SAT AUG 30 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 873 ISSUED AT 450 PM MST FOR PORTIONS OF

ARIZONA

KPSR [300820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 300820
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 AM MST SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 PM TSTM WND GST 9 E PEORIA 33.69N 112.08W
08/29/2008 M51.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ ASOS

51 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT DEER VALLEY AIRPORT ASOS

1105 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 E PEORIA 33.68N 112.11W
08/29/2008 M1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

ONE INCH OF RAIN IN 10 MINUTES AT INTERSECTION OF
INTERSTATE 17 AND DEER VALLEY ROAD. VISIBILITY LOWERED TO
AN ESTIMATED 25 FEET DURING THIS CLOUDBURST.

1110 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 S CAVE CREEK 33.77N 111.96W
08/29/2008 M0.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IN 10 MINUTES NEAR CAVE CREEK.

1113 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNW GLENDALE 33.65N 112.25W
08/29/2008 M49.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

PEAK WIND GUST OF 49 MPH NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 91ST
AVENUE AND UNION HILLS ROAD.

1118 PM TSTM WND GST 8 E PEORIA 33.68N 112.11W
08/29/2008 M52.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

52 MPH PEAK WIND GUST MEASURED NEAR 35TH AVENUE AND
THUNDERBIRD.

1124 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NNW PEORIA 33.72N 112.26W
08/29/2008 M60.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

60 MPH WIND GUST AT 91ST AVENUE AND JOMAX. SPOTTER
INDICATED WINDS WERE LIKELY STRONGER...SINCE 60 MPH WAS
THE PEAK READING PROVIDED BY THE ANEMOMETER.

1155 PM DUST STORM 7 NW BUCKEYE 33.44N 112.70W
08/29/2008 MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

ONE EIGHTH MILE VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST REPORTED AT
INTERSTATE 10 AND 300TH AVENUE. SEMI TRUCKS AT A
STANDSTILL.

1156 PM TSTM WND GST 11 NNW PERRYVILLE 33.58N 112.58W
08/29/2008 M58.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ MESONET

58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT WHITE TANK MOUNTAIN MESONET
SITE.

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300820
SWOD48
SPC AC 300820

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...WHILE THE EASTERN STATES BROAD UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SIMILAR TO DAY
3/MONDAY...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY 4/TUESDAY...BUT AN
APPRECIABLE/OVERLY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS NOT EXPECTED.

WITH THE FORECAST LANDFALL OF GUSTAV ON DAY 3/MONDAY -- SEE LATEST
NHC GUIDANCE FOR DETAILS -- ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY AT LEAST DAY 4/TUESDAY AND PERHAPS DAY 5/WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY/MID-SOUTH REGION AS GUSTAV MOVES
INLAND/WEAKENS. HOWEVER...INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
POSITIONING/TIMING OF GUSTAV PRECLUDES SEVERE/TORNADO PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL SYSTEM HANNA MAY ALSO EVENTUALLY BE A FACTOR
FOR TORNADOES /INITIALLY ACROSS FL/ BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK PER
LATEST NHC FORECASTS...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

..GUYER.. 08/30/2008

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 300732
SWODY3
SPC AC 300730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH A SLOW EAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. FARTHER
EAST...EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHILE
HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN AS IT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH/MAKE
LANDFALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY...SEE NHC FORECASTS
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS. ACCORDINGLY...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS/SRH ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE FRONT-RIGHT QUADRANT OF GUSTAV WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LARGELY PARALLEL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE A SLOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. AIDED BY LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OWING TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MODEST INSTABILITY/WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FRONT-LAGGING SHEAR IMPLIES THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

..GUYER.. 08/30/2008

KEAX [300622]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KEAX 300622
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
122 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM TSTM WND GST COFFEY 40.11N 94.01W
08/28/2008 E60.00 MPH DAVIESS MO PUBLIC

0452 PM HAIL AVENUE CITY 39.88N 94.78W
08/28/2008 E0.88 INCH ANDREW MO EMERGENCY MNGR

0512 PM HAIL 5 W STEWARTSVILLE 39.75N 94.59W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH DEKALB MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG TRENTON 40.08N 93.60W
08/28/2008 GRUNDY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREES LIMB DOWN AND BLOCKING TRAFFIC ON MAPLE ROAD.
ALSO TREE LIMBS DOWN ON MERRILL ROAD.

0536 PM HAIL 3 SW INDEPENDENCE 39.06N 94.39W
08/28/2008 M0.88 INCH JACKSON MO NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORTED OUTSIDE ARROWHEAD STADIUM

0540 PM HAIL KANSAS CITY 39.12N 94.55W
08/28/2008 E0.88 INCH JACKSON MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT STERLING AND 49TH
STREET.

0608 PM HAIL BLUE SPRINGS 39.02N 94.28W
08/28/2008 E1.00 INCH JACKSON MO PUBLIC

GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH

0610 PM HAIL 6 N LEES SUMMIT 39.00N 94.38W
08/28/2008 E0.88 INCH JACKSON MO CO-OP OBSERVER

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG MACON 39.74N 92.47W
08/28/2008 MACON MO TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS WERE REPORTED TO GUST TO 60 MPH...WITH 1/2 INCH
HAIL. AT LEAST TWO TREES WERE UPROOTED AND BRANCHES UP TO
1 1/2 FEET IN DIAMETER WERE SNAPPED OFF.

0612 PM HAIL 2 SW BLUE SPRINGS 39.00N 94.30W
08/28/2008 E1.50 INCH JACKSON MO PUBLIC

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S NEW BOSTON 39.92N 92.88W
08/28/2008 LINN MO PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0630 PM HAIL 1 W EDGERTON 38.76N 95.03W
08/28/2008 E1.75 INCH JOHNSON KS PUBLIC

ALONG JOHNSON/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE. RELAYED FROM WFO TOP.

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG MOBERLY 39.42N 92.44W
08/28/2008 RANDOLPH MO EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN IN MOBERLY. AIRPORT REPORTED WIND GUST TO 54
MPH.

0645 PM HAIL 7 NW PAOLA 38.65N 94.96W
08/28/2008 E1.75 INCH MIAMI KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TIME AND LOCATION ESTIMATED.

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SW ODESSA 38.94N 94.03W
08/28/2008 LAFAYETTE MO PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W PITTSVILLE 38.83N 94.04W
08/28/2008 JOHNSON MO EMERGENCY MNGR

2 TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 50 NEAR ELM. TIME ESTD.

0710 PM TSTM WND DMG WARRENSBURG 38.76N 93.73W
08/28/2008 JOHNSON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES IN THE VICINITY
OF WARRENSBURG.

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG LEETON 38.58N 93.70W
08/28/2008 JOHNSON MO EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN. TIME ESTD.

0745 PM TSTM WND DMG LA MONTE 38.77N 93.42W
08/28/2008 PETTIS MO EMERGENCY MNGR

WINDS BLEW AN EIGHT INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB DOWN. MANY
SMALLER BRANCHES WERE DOWN AS WELL. TOWN IS STILL WITHOUT
POWER.

0757 PM TSTM WND DMG CREIGHTON 38.50N 94.07W
08/28/2008 CASS MO PUBLIC

TREE LIMBS FROM 3 TO 14 INCHES IN DIAMETER WERE BLOWN
DOWN. DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO GUTTERS ON A HOME WITH A
FRONT PORCH POST BLOWN OFF. ALSO DAMAGE TO A CHIMNEY WAS
REPORTED.

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E CREIGHTON 38.50N 94.02W
08/28/2008 HENRY MO PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0805 PM TSTM WND DMG OTTERVILLE 38.70N 93.00W
08/28/2008 COOPER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN

0815 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S PRAIRIE HOME 38.77N 92.59W
08/28/2008 COOPER MO PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

KEAX [300620]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 300620
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
120 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W PITTSVILLE 38.83N 94.04W
08/28/2008 JOHNSON MO EMERGENCY MNGR

2 TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 50 NEAR ELM. TIME ESTD.

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG LEETON 38.58N 93.70W
08/28/2008 JOHNSON MO EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN. TIME ESTD.

Friday, August 29, 2008

KPUB [292129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 292129
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0328 PM HAIL 3 S RYE 37.88N 104.93W
08/29/2008 M1.00 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

STARTED 310 PM...ENDED 320 PM...

JKH

KPUB [292118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 292118
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
318 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HAIL RYE 37.92N 104.93W
08/29/2008 M0.75 INCH PUEBLO CO CO-OP OBSERVER

PWOLYN

KOUN [292116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 292116
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
416 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM TSTM WND GST 11 SW STILLWATER 36.00N 97.20W
08/29/2008 M59 MPH PAYNE OK MESONET

KSHV [292114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 292114
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
414 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 E EL DORADO 33.22N 92.49W
08/29/2008 UNION AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF UNION COUNTY

KLZK [292107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 292107
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
407 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG ALBION 35.33N 91.80W
08/29/2008 WHITE AR EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 16. HIGHWAY WAS
COMPLETELY BLOCKED.

KILN [292046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 292046
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
445 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM HAIL 2 S FRANCISVILLE 39.08N 84.73W
08/29/2008 E0.75 INCH BOONE KY TRAINED SPOTTER

I-275 AND ST ROUTE 237 INTERCHANGE

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 292000
SWODY1
SPC AC 291957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
S-CNTRL/SWRN AZ...

...AZ/SERN CA...

18Z TUS SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AIR
MASS IS SLOWLY DRYING OVER SERN AZ...PERHAPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
EFFECTS OF DEEP-LAYER ELY WIND FIELDS. HOWEVER...RUC OBJECTIVE
FIELDS AND MODIFICATION OF 12Z PHOENIX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER OVER S-CNTRL/SWRN AZ IS
ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE MODESTLY STRONG ELY
WINDS ON THE LARGE-SCALE WILL OVERWHELM SMALLER-SCALE DIURNAL
CIRCULATIONS...LIMITING THE NUMBER OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED TSTM COMPLEX CAPABLE OF
A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT WOULD DIMINISH.

HOWEVER...BASED ON THE OBSERVED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
PARAMETERS...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF
HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

...SRN OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN OH SWWD THROUGH THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE TX PNHDL. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM
NOCTURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY PRECEDES COLD FRONT FROM NERN OK SEWD
THROUGH CNTRL AR INTO THE MS DELTA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG FROM OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON OWING
TO SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG ABOVE-MENTIONED BOUNDARIES AND
GROWING NUMBER OF STORM-SCALE COLD POOL INTERACTIONS. VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

...S-CNTRL/SERN CO...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO. ELY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS IS SERVING TO: 1) ENHANCE THE WWD
FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO AREA...AND
2) PROMOTE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z GJT SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF
SOME STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...BUT IN GENERAL LOW TO MIDLEVEL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.

..MEAD/KIS.. 08/29/2008

KLSX [291832]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 291832
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
132 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM HAIL 7 SW STEELVILLE 37.90N 91.45W
08/28/2008 M0.75 INCH CRAWFORD MO TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE ABOUT 1 FOOT IN DIAMETER HALFWAY ACROSS BARNACLE
CHAPLE RD.

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800939

KARLZ

KEAX [291812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 291812
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
111 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S PRAIRIE HOME 38.77N 92.59W
08/28/2008 COOPER MO PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0805 PM TSTM WND DMG OTTERVILLE 38.70N 93.00W
08/28/2008 COOPER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SW ODESSA 38.94N 94.03W
08/28/2008 LAFAYETTE MO PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S NEW BOSTON 39.92N 92.88W
08/28/2008 LINN MO PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E CREIGHTON 38.50N 94.02W
08/28/2008 HENRY MO PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

DBEUSTER

KEWX [291734]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 291734
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0807 AM FLASH FLOOD JUNO 30.15N 101.12W
08/29/2008 VAL VERDE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SH163 AT JUNO CLOSED DUE TO 3 FEET OF WATER GOING OVER
THE ROAD

1130 AM FLASH FLOOD DEL RIO 29.38N 100.90W
08/29/2008 VAL VERDE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMBER OF VEHICLES STALLED...ONE PERSON RESCUED FROM A
VEHICLE AT RAILWAY AND 90E A RAILROAD UNDERPASS

1155 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW DEL RIO 29.37N 100.91W
08/29/2008 VAL VERDE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

CIENEGAS RD BARRICADED DUE TO WATER COVERING THE
ROADWAY

1200 PM FLASH FLOOD DEL RIO 29.38N 100.90W
08/29/2008 VAL VERDE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS RESIDENTIAL STREETS FLOODED IN DEL RIO

EVENT NUMBER EWX0800224 EWX0800225 EWX0800226 EWX0800227

SMART

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 291649
SWODY2
SPC AC 291648

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY TWO
PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER WRN CANADA/U.S...
SUPPORTING BUILDING OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ONTARIO.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

WRN EXTENSION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. FARTHER SE...FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SWD AS EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY.
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE MOIST OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER/MID 70S. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRIER...BUT RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL YIELD MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS DIURNAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. NONETHELESS...THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. THE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
OWING TO THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

...MT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE W. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER
DRY WITH PW VALUES OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.6-0.7 INCH.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...RESULTING IN POCKETS OF WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG OR IN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES...COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MODERATELY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR.

...LOWER CO VALLEY...

A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE. WHILE MIDLEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS...ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW MORE INTENSE
STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD.. 08/29/2008

KVEF [291648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 291648
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
947 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 S MOHAVE VALLEY 34.87N 114.58W
08/25/2008 MOHAVE AZ FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

THE QUAIL RUN SUBDIVISION OF MOHAVE VALLEY WAS FLOODED
OUT FROM HEAVY RAINS. SEVERAL STREETS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
WERE UNDER WATER AND RESIDENCE HOMES HAD TO BE SANDBAGGED
TO PREVENT RISING WATERS FROM ENTERING THE HOUSES.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291626
SWODY1
SPC AC 291623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
THE LARGE SCALE REGIME IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A BAND OF 30-40
KT ELY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER AZ ON THE N SIDE OF AN ELONGATED MID
LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM TUS SHOWS SOME
STABILIZING IMPACTS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHILE THE PHOENIX
SOUNDING IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 12Z YESTERDAY...DESPITE THE PRIOR
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF CLOUDS OVER AZ THIS
MORNING...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
MID-UPPER 90S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL TEND
TO REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUBSTANTIAL ELY
MID LEVEL FLOW...ANY STORM CLUSTERS THAT FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
WILL MOVE WWD OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION SINCE THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE ELYS ARE NOW
OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA...AND FARTHER TO THE E OVER THE BIG BEND
REGION OF TX. STILL...THE CENTRAL AZ AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED...AND A SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NEEDED IF EXPECTED STORM
COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.

...KY/TN/AR/OK THIS AFTERNOON...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SEWD INTO WRN KY/MO BOOTHEEL/NRN AR/NE
OK...TO THE SE OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS
REVEAL THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AOA 70 F.
HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING
THAT ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONSIST OF ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH PULSE-TYPE STORMS
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

...S CENTRAL CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S HAVE BACKED WWD TO THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN S CENTRAL CO...WHERE CLOUD BREAKS WILL ALLOW MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THIS AREA REMAINS ON
THE SRN FRINGE OF A MID-UPPER CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL
CO...AND WITHIN A NARROW BELT OF 30-50 KT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT SAMPLED
BY THE GJT 12Z SOUNDING. GIVEN THE MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 08/29/2008

KFFC [291529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 291529
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1128 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 N NEESE 34.12N 83.32W
08/25/2008 MADISON GA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER SUBMITTED PHOTO OF FUNNEL CLOUD CROSSING
HIGHWAY 106 AT ROGERS MILL ROAD, TRAVELLING
NORTHEASTWARD.

SBK

KEAX [291510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KEAX 291510
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1010 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM TSTM WND DMG WARRENSBURG 38.76N 93.73W
08/28/2008 JOHNSON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES IN THE VICINITY
OF WARRENSBURG.

DBEUSTER

KJAX [291508]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 291508
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1108 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NNE SALT SPRINGS 29.41N 81.69W
08/28/2008 PUTNAM FL UTILITY COMPANY

UTILITY COMPANY REPORTED TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES IN THE
SALT SPRINGS VICINITY.

JHESS

KJAX [291504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 291504
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1103 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 E JUNIPER SPRINGS 29.17N 81.67W
08/28/2008 MARION FL UTILITY COMPANY

UTILITY COMPANY REPORTED TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES IN THE
ASTOR PARK VICINITY.

JHESS

KEAX [291501]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KEAX 291501
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1001 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM TSTM WND DMG WARRENSBURG 39.93N 89.06W
08/28/2008 MACON IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES IN THE VICINITY
OF WARRENSBURG.

DBEUSTER

KSGX [291452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 291452
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
752 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0402 AM TSTM WND GST 11 NNW CAMPO 32.75N 116.54W
08/29/2008 M55.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

LOS PINOS MOUNTAIN LOOKOUT TOWER - ELEVATION 4850 FT MSL
GUST FRONT MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. OBSERVED
LIGHTNING TO THE DISTANT SOUTHEAST AND SUSTAINED WINDS
23-34 MPH WITH GUSTS 48 MPH AT 0430 PDT.

RBALFO

KJAX [291434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 291434
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1034 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 5 SW ELKTON 29.73N 81.49W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH ST. JOHNS FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PENNY SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED BY FIRE RESCUE NEAR THE
TOWN OF ARMSTRONG.

DEESE

KEWX [291424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 291424
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
923 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0807 AM FLASH FLOOD JUNO 30.15N 101.12W
08/29/2008 VAL VERDE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SH163 AT JUNO CLOSED DUE TO 3 FEET OF WATER GOING OVER
THE ROAD

EVENT NUMBER EWX0800224

SMART

KFSD [291411]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 291411
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
909 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM HAIL 5 WNW OTO 42.32N 95.98W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH WOODBURY IA TRAINED SPOTTER

WILLIAMS

KLSX [291408]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 291408
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
907 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 SW BOWLING GREEN 39.22N 91.35W
08/28/2008 PIKE MO CO-OP OBSERVER

10 INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS RT K

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800938

KARLZ

KLSX [291345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 291345
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
844 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM HAIL 6 SW STEELVILLE 37.91N 91.43W
08/28/2008 M0.75 INCH CRAWFORD MO CO-OP OBSERVER

LASTED 1 MINUTE

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800937

KARLZ

KSGF [291343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 291343
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
843 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FLOOD 1 N LYNCHBURG 37.51N 92.29W
08/29/2008 LACLEDE MO AMATEUR RADIO

FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 32...NORTH OF
LYNCHBURG ALONG MILL CREEK

JLT

KICT [291243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 291243
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
743 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 NE THAYER 37.54N 95.41W
08/29/2008 NEOSHO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

K-47 WAS BARRICADED AND CLOSED TO TRAFFIC BETWEEN HIGHWAY
169 AND HIGHWAY 59 DUE TO HIGH WATER FLOWING ACROSS THE
ROAD.

KED

KICT [291235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KICT 291235
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
735 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0148 AM HAIL CHANUTE 37.67N 95.46W
08/29/2008 M0.75 INCH NEOSHO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0315 AM HAIL CHANUTE 37.67N 95.46W
08/29/2008 E0.88 INCH NEOSHO KS TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY DIMES BUT A FEW LARGER.

0331 AM FLOOD CHANUTE 37.67N 95.46W
08/29/2008 NEOSHO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR STREET FLOODING IN TOWN.

0355 AM HAIL 2 NW GALESBURG 37.49N 95.38W
08/29/2008 E0.88 INCH NEOSHO KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0420 AM FLOOD 2 SE THAYER 37.47N 95.45W
08/29/2008 NEOSHO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER 80TH ROAD.

0555 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NE THAYER 37.53N 95.42W
08/29/2008 NEOSHO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER FLOWING ACROSS K-47, ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF HIGHWAY
169. KDOT WAS BEING DISPATCHED TO AREA.

0730 AM FLOOD 7 W NEODESHA 37.42N 95.81W
08/29/2008 WILSON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER ACROSS 300 ROAD.

KED

KICT [291233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 291233
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM FLOOD 7 W NEODESHA 37.42N 95.81W
08/29/2008 WILSON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER ACROSS 300 ROAD.

KED

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291231
SWODY1
SPC AC 291228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH THE REINFORCEMENT FROM CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS HAVE PUSHED THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE S OF
THE PRIMARY WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT WHILE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GOOD SUPPLY FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WIND SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE SUPPORTIVE
OF PRIMARILY PULSE STORMS.

...LOWER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY WWD ACROSS OK TO LEE OF SRN ROCKIES...
WAVY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM LOWER OH RIVER WWD TO ACROSS NRN OK TO
ERN NM WILL MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER S BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY NEAR 70F MUCH OF THIS AREA VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY...SCATTERED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM THRU THE LOW 90S
AND MLCAPES CLIMB TO AOA 2000 J/KG. BEING FAR REMOVED FROM THE
WESTERLIES TO THE N...DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10KT OR SO...INDICATING THE PULSE MODE WILL BE DOMINANT
TODAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WET MICRO BURSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE VICINITY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY STABILIZES.

...SWRN DESERTS...
LARGE/SEVERE MCS WHICH FORMED OVER SCENTRAL AZ AND SPREAD WWD TO SRN
CA MTNS THU HAS TEMPORARILY REDUCED INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR TODAY. SINCE 25-30KT OF ELY STEERING FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AZ AND THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE FROM HIGHER TO LOWER ELEVATIONS BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY
AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIKELY NOT BE COMPLETELY REMOVED BY
HEATING...LESSENING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

..HALES/DIAL.. 08/29/2008

KICT [291059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 291059
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
559 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NE THAYER 37.53N 95.42W
08/29/2008 NEOSHO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER FLOWING ACROSS K-47, ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF HIGHWAY
169. KDOT WAS BEING DISPATCHED TO AREA.

KED

KLSX [291026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 291026
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
525 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 S MORRISON 38.58N 91.61W
08/29/2008 M2.90 INCH GASCONADE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT IS STORM TOTAL

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800936

TILLY

KICT [290926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 290926
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
426 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 AM FLOOD 2 SE THAYER 37.47N 95.45W
08/29/2008 NEOSHO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER 80TH ROAD.

KED

KEWX [290925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 290925
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
424 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 AM FLASH FLOOD DEL RIO 29.38N 100.90W
08/29/2008 VAL VERDE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREET FLOODING IN DEL RIO

KICT [290904]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 290904
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
404 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 AM HAIL 2 NW GALESBURG 37.49N 95.38W
08/29/2008 E0.88 INCH NEOSHO KS TRAINED SPOTTER

KED

KPSR [290900]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 290900
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 AM MST FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW TEMPE 33.45N 111.95W
08/28/2008 MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

NUMEROUS TREES AND BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN

1000 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S PHOENIX 33.48N 112.06W
08/28/2008 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN AT 7TH AND THOMAS. ALUMINUM
ROOF TORN OFF OFFICE BUILDING ONTO THOMAS ROAD.

1246 AM TSTM WND GST 3 S YUMA 32.64N 114.62W
08/29/2008 M56 MPH YUMA AZ ASOS

56 MPH PEAK WIND GUST MEASURED AT YUMA MCAS ASOS SITE.

1250 AM TSTM WND DMG SOMERTON 32.60N 114.71W
08/29/2008 YUMA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES BLOWN DOWN.

DGREEN

KICT [290855]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 290855
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
355 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 AM HAIL CHANUTE 37.67N 95.46W
08/29/2008 E0.88 INCH NEOSHO KS TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY DIMES BUT A FEW LARGER.

KED

KICT [290835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 290835
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0331 AM FLOOD CHANUTE 37.67N 95.46W
08/29/2008 NEOSHO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR STREET FLOODING IN TOWN.

KED

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290733
SWOD48
SPC AC 290732

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP UPPER TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITION
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH DAYS 4/5
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BUT...LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES PRECLUDES AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE FORECAST LANDFALL OF GUSTAV /SEE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE FOR
DETAILS/...TORNADOES WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AT LEAST DAY
4/MONDAY AND DAY 5/TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
LIKELY THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH REGION. HOWEVER...INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE POSITIONING/TIMING OF GUSTAV PRECLUDES A
SPATIAL DELINEATION OF SEVERE/TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 08/29/2008

KPSR [290725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 290725
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1225 AM MST FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 AM HAIL 5 ENE GLENDALE 33.62N 112.12W
08/29/2008 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

GREENWAY AND I17

WATERS

KPSR [290721]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 290721
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1221 AM MST FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 AM HAIL 9 NNE PHOENIX 33.67N 112.03W
08/29/2008 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

CAVE CREEK AND 101

WATERS

KPSR [290720]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 290720
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1220 AM MST FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW SCOTTSDALE 33.70N 111.89W
08/29/2008 E0.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0.6 INCHES IN 10 MINUTES. PIMA AND PINNACLE.

WATERS

KPSR [290707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPSR 290707
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1207 AM MST FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S CHANDLER 33.27N 111.87W
08/28/2008 M77.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ AWOS

CHANDLER AIRPORT

0830 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 S CHANDLER 33.22N 111.88W
08/28/2008 M0.22 INCH MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

0.22 INCH IN 5 MINS

0830 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE CHANDLER 33.31N 111.82W
08/28/2008 M0.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0.5 INCH RAIN IN 10 MINS

0840 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 W CHANDLER 33.29N 111.95W
08/28/2008 E0.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0.5 INCH IN 30 MINS.

0850 PM HAIL 7 SW GUADALUPE 33.30N 112.06W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

3/4 INCH HAIL REPT LIBERTY LN AND DESERT FOOTHILLS PKWY

0850 PM HAIL 4 SW GUADALUPE 33.32N 112.00W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

0906 PM HAIL NW MARICOPA 33.06N 112.05W
08/28/2008 E0.25 INCH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1/4 INCH HAIL COMPLETELY COVERING GROUND

0910 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW KINGS RANCH 33.37N 111.45W
08/28/2008 M0.50 INCH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF INCH RAIN IN 9 MINUTES

0912 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 E APACHE JUNCTION 33.40N 111.48W
08/28/2008 M0.00 INCH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0.27 INCH RAIN IN 7 MINUTES

0919 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW APACHE JUNCTION 33.42N 111.57W
08/28/2008 E0.00 INCH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1.2 INCH IN 25 MINS

0920 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NE MESA 33.45N 111.70W
08/28/2008 E75.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

RECKER AND BROWN

0920 PM HAIL 3 NE MESA 33.45N 111.70W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

BROWN AND RECKER IN EAST MESA

0921 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW APACHE JUNCTION 33.39N 111.63W
08/28/2008 M0.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0.5 INCH IN 15 MINS AT ELLSWORTH AND SOUTHERN

0930 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSW PARADISE VALLEY 33.47N 111.98W
08/28/2008 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN 48TH ST AND MCDOWELL WITH 40 MPH WINDS

0938 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NW TEMPE 33.44N 112.01W
08/28/2008 M75.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ ASOS

MEASURED ASOS AT PHX AIRPORT

0940 PM HAIL 4 SW GUADALUPE 33.32N 112.01W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

32ND AND RAY

0940 PM HAIL 4 SW GUADALUPE 33.32N 112.01W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

32ND AND RAY IN AHWATUKEE

1000 PM HAIL 4 SW GUADALUPE 33.32N 112.01W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1010 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SSE PHOENIX 33.48N 112.05W
08/28/2008 M85.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

MEASURED WIND GUST 16TH ST AND THOMAS

1015 PM TSTM WND GST WSW ESTRELLA 33.00N 112.42W
08/28/2008 M69.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTRELLA PKWY AND ELLIOT

1015 PM DUST STORM 4 SW WADDELL 33.54N 112.41W
08/28/2008 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1/4 MI VIS IN DUST STORM 4 MI WEST OF LUKE AFB

1043 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N AVONDALE 33.49N 112.36W
08/28/2008 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

2 FOOT DIAM TREE DOWN

1101 PM HAIL 6 WSW FOUNTAIN HILLS 33.58N 111.84W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT AND SHEA

1105 PM HAIL 5 NNE PARADISE VALLEY 33.61N 111.93W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

SCOTTSDALE AND THUNDERBIRD

1105 PM HAIL 3 S SCOTTSDALE 33.64N 111.86W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

104ST AND BELL

1130 PM HAIL 5 NNE PARADISE VALLEY 33.61N 111.93W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

SCOTTSDALE AND THUNDERBIRD

1130 PM HAIL 2 W PHOENIX 33.54N 112.10W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

18TH AND GLENDALE

1130 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W PHOENIX 33.54N 112.10W
08/28/2008 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

18 INCH DIAM TREE DOWN

1140 PM HAIL 2 WSW PARADISE VALLEY 33.53N 111.98W
08/28/2008 E1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

TATUM AND LINCOLN

WATERS

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 290702
SWODY3
SPC AC 290700

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
DAKOTAS...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT
BASIN SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE EAST...A
LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS/CANADA.
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
LARGELY PARALLEL TO DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
ON SUNDAY. AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
PORTIONS OF WY/MT...IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP/INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
HAVING INCREASED DURING THE DAY-2 PERIOD...POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSED WITH MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT SOME WELL-ORGANIZED TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

...EASTERN GREAT BASIN/UT VICINITY...
DEEPENING WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH/INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO A NUMBER OF POTENTIALLY STRONG/RELATIVELY
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ON SUNDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EAST-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. INCREASING WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN A RISK OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN NV
AND UT.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
LATEST NHC FORECASTS SUGGEST GUSTAV WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY -- REFERENCE
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE FOR DETAILS. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
GUSTAV...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS COULD STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. BUT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LATE DAY-3 TIMING AND INHERENT TRACK
UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..GUYER.. 08/29/2008

KICT [290657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 290657
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
157 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0148 AM HAIL CHANUTE 37.67N 95.46W
08/29/2008 M0.75 INCH NEOSHO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

KED

KPSR [290652]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 290652
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1152 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W PHOENIX 33.54N 112.10W
08/28/2008 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

18 INCH DIAM TREE DOWN

WATERS

KPSR [290651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 290651
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1151 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM HAIL 2 W PHOENIX 33.54N 112.10W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

18TH AND GLENDALE

WATERS

KPSR [290642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 290642
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1141 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM HAIL 5 NNE PARADISE VALLEY 33.61N 111.93W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

SCOTTSDALE AND THUNDERBIRD

WATERS

KPSR [290640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 290640
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1140 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 PM HAIL 2 WSW PARADISE VALLEY 33.53N 111.98W
08/28/2008 E1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

TATUM AND LINCOLN

WATERS

KPSR [290627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 290627
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1127 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1105 PM HAIL 5 NNE PARADISE VALLEY 33.61N 111.93W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

SCOTTSDALE AND THUNDERBIRD

WATERS

KPSR [290614]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 290614
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1114 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1105 PM HAIL 3 S SCOTTSDALE 33.64N 111.86W
08/28/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

104ST AND BELL

WATERS

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